Confidence and the Stock Market: An Agent-Based Approach

Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations—indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.     

Piperine,a Natural Bioenhancer,Nullifies the Antidiabetic and Antioxidant Activities of Curcumin in Streptozotocin-Diabetic Rats

Knowing that curcumin has low bioavailability when administered orally, and that piperine has bioenhancer activity by inhibition of hepatic and intestinal biotransformation processes, the aim of this study was to investigate the antidiabetic and antioxidant activities of curcumin (90 mg/kg) and piperine (20 or 40 mg/kg), alone or co-administered, incorporated in yoghurt, in streptozotocin (STZ)-diabetic rats. The treatment for 45 days of STZ-diabetic rats with curcumin-enriched yoghurt improved all parameters altered in this experimental model of diabetes: the body weight was increased in association with the weight of skeletal muscles and white adipose tissues; the progressive increase in the glycemia levels was avoided, as well as in the glycosuria, urinary urea, dyslipidemia, and markers of liver (alanine and aspartate aminotransferases and alkaline phosphatase) and kidney (urinary protein) dysfunction; the hepatic oxidative stress was decreased, since the activities of the antioxidant enzymes superoxide dismutase, catalase and gluthatione peroxidase were increased, and the levels of malondialdehyde and protein carbonyl groups were reduced. The dose of 20 mg/kg piperine also showed antidiabetic and antioxidant activities. The treatment of STZ-diabetic rats with both curcumin and 20 mg/kg piperine in yoghurt did not change the antidiabetic and antioxidant activities of curcumin; notably, the treatment with both curcumin and 40 mg/kg piperine abrogated the beneficial effects of curcumin. In addition, the alanine aminotransferase levels were further increased in diabetic rats treated with curcumin and 40 mg/kg piperine in comparison with untreated diabetic rats. These findings support that the co-administration of curcumin with a bioenhancer did not bring any advantage to the curcumin effects, at least about the antidiabetic and antioxidant activities, which could be related to changes on its biotransformation.     

A New Recombinant BCG Vaccine Induces Specific Th17 and Th1 Effector Cells with Higher Protective Efficacy against Tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) that is a major public health problem. The vaccine used for TB prevention is Mycobacterium bovis bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), which provides variable efficacy in protecting against pulmonary TB among adults. Consequently, several groups have pursued the development of a new vaccine with a superior protective capacity to that of BCG. Here we constructed a new recombinant BCG (rBCG) vaccine expressing a fusion protein (CMX) composed of immune dominant epitopes from Ag85C, MPT51, and HspX and evaluated its immunogenicity and protection in a murine model of infection. The stability of the vaccine in vivo was maintained for up to 20 days post-vaccination. rBCG-CMX was efficiently phagocytized by peritoneal macrophages and induced nitric oxide (NO) production. Following mouse immunization, this vaccine induced a specific immune response in cells from lungs and spleen to the fusion protein and to each of the component recombinant proteins by themselves. Vaccinated mice presented higher amounts of Th1, Th17, and polyfunctional specific T cells. rBCG-CMX vaccination reduced the extension of lung lesions caused by challenge with Mtb as well as the lung bacterial load. In addition, when this vaccine was used in a prime-boost strategy together with rCMX, the lung bacterial load was lower than the result observed by BCG vaccination. This study describes the creation of a new promising vaccine for TB that we hope will be used in further studies to address its safety before proceeding to clinical trials.     

Interglacial microrefugia and diversification of a cactus species complex: phylogeography and palaeodistributional reconstructions for Pilosocereus aurisetus and allies

The role of Pleistocene climate changes in promoting evolutionary diversification in global biota is well documented, but the great majority of data regarding this subject come from North America and Europe, which were greatly affected by glaciation. The effects of Pleistocene changes on cold‐ and/or dry‐adapted species in tropical areas where glaciers were not present remain sparsely investigated. Many such species are restricted to small areas surrounded by unfavourable habitats, which may represent potential interglacial microrefugia. Here, we analysed the phylogeographic structure and diversification history of seven cactus species in the Pilosocereus aurisetus complex that are restricted to rocky areas with high diversity and endemism within the Neotropical savannas of eastern South America. We combined palaeodistributional estimates with standard phylogeographic approaches based on two chloroplast DNA regions (trnT‐trnL and trnS‐trnG), exon 1 of the nuclear gene PhyC and 10 nuclear microsatellite loci. Our analyses revealed a phylogeographic history marked by multiple levels of distributional fragmentation, isolation leading to allopatric differentiation and secondary contact among divergent lineages within the complex. Diversification and demographic events appear to have been affected by the Quaternary climatic cycles as a result of isolation in multiple patches of xerophytic vegetation. These small patches presently harbouring P. aurisetus populations seem to operate as microrefugia, both at present and during Pleistocene interglacial periods; the role of such microrefugia should be explored and analysed in greater detail.     

Field evaluation of (E)-2-hexenal efficacy for behavioral manipulation of egg parasitoids in soybean

We studied the influence of synthetic (E)-2-hexenal on the abundance of Telenominae aiming to attract parasitoids and enhance stink bug egg parasitism in treated areas. We conducted experiments in 2006, 2007 and 2008 soybean seasons with two short-term (one week) and one long-term (seven weeks) experiment, respectively. We evaluated the abundance of parasitoids with yellow sticky traps and estimated the incidence and intensity of parasitism with sentinel eggs of Euschistus heros Fabricius (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) or with tulle bags, enclosing laboratory pregnant E. heros as an egg source. In short-term experiments, there was increased abundance of Trissolcus spp. (Hymenoptera: Platygastridae: Telenominae) in treated areas, associated with greater intensity of parasitism. In long-term experiments, treatment with (E)-2-hexenal did not influence the abundance of Telenominae or parasitism levels, but increased egg predation. Applications of (E)-2-hexenal can be used to increase recruitment of Trissolcus spp. in the early flowering stages of soybean and also to attract other natural enemies, but do not increase egg parasitism.     

Agouti reintroduction recovers seed dispersal of a large-seeded tropical tree

The aim of animal reintroductions has mainly been species recovery; only few reintroduction initiatives focus on ecosystem restoration. Therefore, reintroduction consequences on ecological interactions are seldom assessed. We used the interaction between a reintroduced population of agoutis (Dasyprocta leporina) and a vulnerable tropical endemic tree (Joannesia princeps) to examine reintroduction effects on seed dispersal and seedling establishment. To test the outcomes of this interaction, we tracked seeds of J. princeps in two adjacent forest areas with and without reintroduced agoutis. We also assessed if dispersal distances affected seedling survival. To determine seed fate and dispersal distance, we used spool-and-line tracking, together with camera traps to identify dispersers. Agoutis were the only species removing J. princeps seeds, thus dispersal only occurred where agoutis had been reintroduced; in the area without agoutis, all seeds remained intact on the soil, even one year after the experiment's beginning. At the reintroduction area, most seeds were preyed upon by agoutis but 7% remained dispersed and 2% germinated after ten months. Only seeds buried by agoutis were able to germinate. Most dispersed seeds were dispersed 15 m or farther and longer dispersal distances benefited J. princeps, since seedlings farther from a conspecific adult tree had greater survival probability. Agoutis were also seen burying seeds of two other plant species; these mammals have the potential to benefit dozens of large-seeded species in our study system. Agouti reintroduction thus exemplifies the value of trophic rewilding programs to re-establish ecological interactions and restore ecosystem functioning.     

Influence of up-flow velocity on the performance of an anaerobic filter under oleic acid overloads

An upflow velocity of 0.21 m h^–1 was optimal to minimize the effect of organic shocks (from 6 to 30 kg COD m^–3 d^–1) when operating an upflow anaerobic filter for the treatment of an oleic acid-based effluent (50% w/v COD). This value represented the transition between a mass transfer controlled regime and a kinetic regime. Under hydraulic shock loads, an increase in upflow velocity from 0.3 to 0.4m h^–1 decreased the removal efficiency from 68 to 51%.